The Canadian GP guarantees to be an unpredictable occasion. It’s often filled with uncertainties because of altering climate situations all through the weekend. This yr, nonetheless, regardless of the forecasts remaining pretty secure to date and anticipated to remain that method tomorrow, the very smooth tire nomination on a low-grip and usually soiled monitor will increase the danger of graining.
A phenomenon that affected all the highest groups throughout Friday’s race tempo simulations. Probably the most affected was Ferrari, which might solely run with Lewis Hamilton because of Charles Leclerc’s absence following his FP1 crash. Earlier than sharing our ideas, let’s assessment the recommendation Pirelli gave to the groups after qualifying.
Pirelli’s recommendation – Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – 70 laps
The primary problem is certainly graining and using C4 and C5 compounds in race mode. Mario Isola, Pirelli motorsport director, was very clear and concise: “Extending the 2025 compound vary is creating quite a lot of approaches amongst groups and drivers in tire utilization all through the weekend, which is able to mirror on the race. From a technique perspective, we expect a two-stop stays probably the most believable possibility, favoring Medium and Arduous tires. The one-stop technique is theoretically legitimate however unlikely to repay, contemplating overtaking is feasible right here and the time misplaced within the pit lane for tire modifications is sort of restricted (round 18 seconds),” in response to the assertion from the Pirelli group.
Graining and quick stops might open the door to a three-stop state of affairs
It’s no secret that the C6 is just not probably the most appropriate tire for the race. The brand new Pirelli compound, on the sort of circuit—as seen already at Imola—doesn’t make a distinction. In qualifying it’s typically even ignored and can probably be much more so in the course of the race.
The GP opens as much as numerous methods, largely relying on the remaining tire units obtainable to the drivers. We agree with Pirelli that the quickest technique, not less than on paper, can be a two-stop plan like Medium-Medium-Arduous or Arduous-Arduous-Medium. It have to be famous that the C5, the yellow compound this yr, continues to be very smooth and, as seen already on Friday (race tempo information), suffers so much from graining.
If drivers can handle stints of about 20 laps on the C5, then the M-M-H technique turns into doable; in any other case, if degradation is excessive and an early pit cease is important, they may change to M-H-H or, in the event that they don’t have two units of C4, change plans in the direction of a three-stop technique probably involving the Smooth tire.
Utilizing the Smooth C6, in our opinion, can be extra a matter of necessity (because of shortages of different compounds) slightly than efficiency. We consider that these beginning on Smooth have both already dedicated to a three-stop or need to attempt to acquire a bonus with an early undercut, hoping to select up positions whereas operating on Arduous tires in clear air. These beginning on Smooth will probably go S-H-H or three stops.
If pressured to make use of Smooth, we advocate utilizing it within the ultimate stint. The extra rubbered-in monitor will assist handle graining higher. Given qualifying efficiency, nonetheless, we don’t consider the C6 can provide a constant efficiency benefit over the C5. Once more, its use can be extra out of necessity.
For these with a scarcity of Medium and Arduous tires—just one set of every obtainable—a two-stop technique together with all three compounds is feasible. Even in that case, the very best strategy can be to make use of Smooth within the final section of the race.
If graining is excessive, we might see two situations the place each undercuts and overcuts may very well be very efficient. Pitting early permits gaining monitor place over drivers on worn tires initially, however these pitting late would possibly acquire a bonus over those that modified tires too early.
Abstract
The 2-stop technique is on paper the best choice, however because the pit cease time is pretty quick (18 seconds), three stops may very well be a really fascinating various, particularly if graining is extreme. In Canada, potential security automobiles should even be thought-about, as a Security Automotive deployment is all the time probably. The groups will should be adept at capitalizing on each alternative, particularly utilizing a free pit cease to realize a bonus.
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